Explore where millions of new homes can be built,
A fresh analysis reveals that over three million medium-density homes, such as townhouses, duplexes, and triplexes, can be built.
This development could take place across Australian capital cities, providing significant opportunities for growth in these urban areas.
According to the CoreLogic and Archistar report, titled The Missing Middle: The Greatest Opportunity for Medium-Density Development, almost 60 percent.
Moreover, nearly 60 percent of these homes would be located within two kilometers of existing train stations, enhancing accessibility.
The 30 councils with the greatest medium-density potential.
| Council area | City | Total number of sites | Total potential units | Within 2km of an existing train station |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane City | Brisbane | 50,419 | 179,286 | 130,362 |
| Mornington Peninsula Shire | Melbourne | 31,629 | 98,367 | 21,105 |
| Wyndham City | Melbourne | 43,989 | 97,653 | 43,565 |
| Moreton Bay City | Brisbane | 41,498 | 91,270 | 42,150 |
| Hume City | Melbourne | 39,201 | 90,929 | 43,343 |
| Canterbury-Bankstown Council | Sydney | 15,008 | 87,886 | 85,496 |
| Logan City | Brisbane | 38,675 | 84,456 | 27,798 |
| Blacktown City Council | Sydney | 33,058 | 75,106 | 58,733 |
| City of Salisbury | Adelaide | 33,647 | 72,571 | 27,617 |
| City of Parramatta Council | Sydney | 27,419 | 70,836 | 54,922 |
| Northern Beaches Council | Sydney | 32,561 | 70,137 | 0 |
| Merri-Bek City | Melbourne | 23,627 | 69,728 | 69,692 |
| Casey City | Melbourne | 30,845 | 68,227 | 35,051 |
| Campbelltown City Council | Adelaide | 28,115 | 60,782 | 29,416 |
| Darebin City | Melbourne | 23,119 | 58,881 | 53,762 |
| Inner West Council | Sydney | 13,521 | 56,760 | 56,218 |
| The Hills Shire Council | Sydney | 24,342 | 50,627 | 25,475 |
| Monash City | Melbourne | 23,567 | 50,168 | 31,094 |
| City of Onkaparinga | Adelaide | 21,131 | 46,462 | 14,236 |
| Knox City | Melbourne | 21,054 | 45,383 | 15,491 |
Melbourne had the largest capacity to accommodate new homes, with the potential for an additional 1,163,118 medium-density dwellings.
Following closely was Sydney, with the ability to build an extra 934,428 medium-density homes.
According to the report, Melbourne’s Mornington Peninsula Shire showed the greatest potential, adding 98,367 homes.
On average, each site in the area could accommodate 3.1 properties, highlighting significant development prospects.
Meanwhile, Sydney’s Canterbury-Bankstown Council area ranked highest for potential, with room for 85,496 medium-density homes.
In this area, the average site could hold 5.9 properties, suggesting substantial growth potential.
The analysis estimated these additional homes based on ongoing developments within current zoning laws across local government areas.
It considered vacant land and properties with detached housing but no strata development, where zoning rules allow.
CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless stated that this research is the first to measure the potential for medium-density housing.
He explained that it reveals a significant opportunity for accommodating more people in these types of homes.
“It shows there’s a massive potential here,” Lawless noted. “However, not all of these homes will be developed.”
He continued, “Probably only a small portion will be built, but it definitely strengthens the discussion around fixing Australia’s housing supply crisis.”
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He stated that the research also identified where medium-density housing could be built to meet the government’s goal.
This goal is to create 1.2 million new well-located homes, addressing the growing demand for housing in Australia.
“It ensures we’re utilizing existing transport routes and hubs,” Lawless explained. “At the same time, we avoid dramatic changes.”
He continued, “We can add density along these transport corridors without introducing significant high-rise developments that alter an area’s character.”
Archistar cofounder Dr. Benjamin Coorey added that the research categorized potential sites based on the complexity of development.
“We’re focusing on the easiest opportunities, the ‘low-hanging fruit,’ for faster implementation,” Coorey explained. “Amalgamating sites increases complexity.”
The research found that 60,972 homes could be built on low-complexity sites in Sydney, while Melbourne had 265,648 such sites.
He emphasized that the medium-density forecasts were based on developments already occurring in various local government areas.
“The calculations were based on precedents in those suburbs,” Coorey said. “These types of developments are already happening in those areas.”
Lawless pointed out that one of the biggest challenges would be whether the private sector could build these homes.
“The 1.2 million target is ambitious, not due to lack of opportunity but because it’s challenging to find feasible options,” he explained.
“It’s difficult for private developers to turn a profit when pursuing these projects. They are focused on business.”
Matt Grudnoff, senior economist at The Australia Institute, said the government could play a role in building homes where the private sector couldn’t.
“Countries with affordable housing have one thing in common: a strong government role in housing supply,” Grudnoff noted.
He used Singapore as an example, where the government provides affordable housing options for young couples and regulates resales.
“In Singapore, young couples can buy affordable apartments through government schemes, but they cannot sell them at private market rates,” he added.
Grudnoff explained that Australia has relied too much on the private sector, where profit motives often conflict with affordability goals.
Dr. Peter Tulip, chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, argued that replacing detached housing with medium-density homes isn’t profitable for developers.
“Developers find it difficult to justify demolishing good homes to replace them with slightly more valuable units,” Tulip said.
He added, “The costs of demolition are high compared to the value added by new medium-density developments.”
